Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Card Game?

Card Game + Pirates

Only 10 developers shipped a Pirate Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $230; 1 in 20 cleared $47k, ×75 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 34 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Card Game + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $225 (exactly $225)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,900)
Top 5% $47k (exactly $47,218)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 29
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 78% positive over 265 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $230, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $230. 34 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pirates Outlaws older $19.99 715 80% 21k $429k (exactly $428,785) Fabled Game
Endless Voyage / 无尽航线 older $16.99 407 65% 12k $207k (exactly $207,448) Dalaran Game Studio
Dead Man's Draw older $6.99 439 83% 13k $92k (exactly $92,058) Stardock Entertainment
Table of Tales: The Crooked Crown older $19.99 110 77% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Tin Man Games, Zero One Studio
Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage · EA $14.99 105 60% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Fabled Game
Smash Up older $6.99 141 60% 4.2k $30k (exactly $29,568) Nomad Games
Shadowhand Solitaire $13.99 64 90% 1.9k $27k (exactly $26,861) Grey Alien Games
CosmoPirates older $11.99 65 81% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,380) BlackMoon Design
Seven Seas Solitaire older $9.99 36 80% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Anawiki Games
HoloSeeker $3.99 66 89% 2.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,900) Imoyokan
Sunken Stones $11.99 14 100% 420 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) Spritewrench
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games
Becoming Captain - The Roguelike Deckbuilder $10.99 7 100% 210 $2.3k (exactly $2,308) Le Havre Création
Liar's Dice $7.49 1 0% 30 $225 (exactly $225) YOAMB
Pirates Adventure Solitaire $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) DigiMight
The Drowned Deal $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) RB Games Studio
Corsair Fleet: Tides of Plunder $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Velron Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.