Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Loot game?

Loot + Pirates

Only 16 developers shipped a Pirate Loot game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SAND: Raiders of Sophie, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14904 the market median. Revenue is up 965% on the market; 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 965% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $600 → $58k → $7.9k → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $127k (exactly $127,136)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 39
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 965% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 15,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 44 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Cat Quest III older $19.99 3,108 94% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,863,868) The Gentlebros
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Flinthook older $14.99 600 73% 18k $270k (exactly $269,820) Tribute Games Inc.
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
Pirates VR: Jolly Roger $19.99 212 76% 6.4k $127k (exactly $127,136) Split Light Studio
Rum & Gun older $4.99 390 92% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Borington
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
HoloSeeker $3.99 66 89% 2.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,900) Imoyokan
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Pirate Patrol $4.99 19 42% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) INDIELLIGENT
Clicker Clicker Treasure Picker · EA $2.99 10 70% 300 $897 (exactly $897) EYVALON ENTERTAINMENT
No Quarter $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) BallsaurDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.