Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical game?

Historical

Of 1,048 developers who shipped a Historical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,785 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2190 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,785 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,048
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $4.5k → $5.4k → $4.4k → $4.9k → $2.7k → $2.3k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,048
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,183)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225)
Developers, 2 yr 1,048
Released games 3,897
Announced 1,785
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 370,083 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 581 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Historical

142 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Resource Management + Historical Poor odds $7.2k 158 devs
  2. Transportation + Historical Poor odds $7.2k 15 devs
  3. Wargame + Historical Poor odds $7.0k 157 devs
  4. Character Customization + Historical Poor odds $7.0k 59 devs
  5. Roguelite + Historical Poor odds $6.7k 87 devs
  6. Turn-Based Strategy + Historical Poor odds $6.6k 158 devs
  7. Hex Grid + Historical Poor odds $6.1k 30 devs
  8. Trading Card Game + Historical Poor odds $6.1k 15 devs
  9. Strategy + Historical Poor odds $6.0k 465 devs
  10. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Historical Poor odds $6.0k 10 devs
  11. Deckbuilding + Historical Poor odds $5.9k 48 devs
  12. CRPG + Historical Poor odds $5.8k 28 devs
  13. Party-Based RPG + Historical Poor odds $5.8k 23 devs
  14. Choices Matter + Historical Poor odds $5.2k 187 devs
  15. Trading + Historical Poor odds $5.2k 38 devs
  16. Otome + Historical Poor odds $5.1k 13 devs
  17. Turn-Based Combat + Historical Poor odds $5.0k 94 devs
  18. Strategy RPG + Historical Poor odds $4.8k 64 devs
  19. Combat + Historical Poor odds $4.8k 177 devs
  20. Hack and Slash + Historical Poor odds $4.5k 45 devs
  21. Exploration + Historical Poor odds $4.1k 238 devs
  22. Multiple Endings + Historical Poor odds $4.0k 138 devs
  23. Political Sim + Historical Poor odds $4.0k 85 devs
  24. Turn-Based Tactics + Historical Poor odds $3.8k 134 devs
  25. Swordplay + Historical Poor odds $3.6k 39 devs
  26. Dynamic Narration + Historical Poor odds $3.6k 17 devs
  27. RPG + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 247 devs
  28. Shooter + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 53 devs
  29. Top-Down Shooter + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 18 devs
  30. Agriculture + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 10 devs
  31. Interactive Fiction + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 101 devs
  32. Auto Battler + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 31 devs
  33. FPS + Historical Poor odds $3.1k 43 devs
  34. Shoot 'Em Up + Historical Poor odds $3.0k 13 devs
  35. Adventure + Historical Poor odds $3.0k 377 devs
  36. Visual Novel + Historical Poor odds $2.9k 136 devs
  37. Walking Simulator + Historical Poor odds $2.9k 42 devs
  38. Action + Historical Poor odds $2.8k 257 devs
  39. Inventory Management + Historical Poor odds $2.8k 37 devs
  40. Roguelike + Historical Poor odds $2.7k 79 devs
  41. Archery + Historical Poor odds $2.7k 11 devs
  42. Point & Click + Historical Poor odds $2.5k 91 devs
  43. PvE + Historical Poor odds $2.4k 88 devs
  44. Card Battler + Historical Poor odds $2.4k 36 devs
  45. Physics + Historical Poor odds $2.3k 49 devs
  46. Choose Your Own Adventure + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 98 devs
  47. Creature Collector + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  48. PvP + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 89 devs
  49. Sailing + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 26 devs
  50. Platformer + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 40 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.