Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Historical

Of 23 developers who shipped a Historical Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×182 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $55k → $15k → $5.8k → $7.7k → $1.8k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $114k (exactly $114,262)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 64
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 968 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Xuan-Yuan Sword: The Scar of Sky older $9.99 2,437 93% 73k $730k (exactly $730,369) DOMO Studio, SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Xuan-Yuan Sword: Mists Beyond the Mountains older $13.99 1,161 84% 35k $487k (exactly $487,272) DOMO Studio, SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal
Circus Electrique older $19.99 258 74% 7.7k $155k (exactly $154,723) Zen Studios
Legends of the Round Table $29.99 127 89% 3.8k $114k (exactly $114,262) Artifice Studio
吞食天地之乱舞三国 $13.99 271 92% 8.1k $114k (exactly $113,739) FC Maker
Uncharted Ocean older $4.99 563 70% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) HiRabbitgame
秦殇 (Prince of Qin) older $0.99 2,489 78% 75k $74k (exactly $73,923) 北京目标在线科技有限公司
The Hidden Scrolls $9.99 94 69% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Red Dragon Studio
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Animal Simulator $8.99 39 30% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Imperian Online - Core
Netoria Tactics 2 · EA $14.99 21 95% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Apollo Seven Games
Beggar's Road $7.99 37 72% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) Coldframe Studios
Three Kingdoms: Shu-Han Chronicles $12.99 20 45% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) QianFan Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.