Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Historical
Should I ship a Historical Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Historical
Of 136 developers who shipped a Historical Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 214 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 214 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $33,592) |
| Top 5% | $690k (exactly $690,474) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 136 |
| Released games | 447 |
| Announced | 214 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.58 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.58 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 33,531 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 214 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M 
Murders on the Yangtze River 2024 · $7.1M 
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles 2021 · $6.1M 
Fate/Samurai Remnant 2023 · $6.0M 
Fate/stay night REMASTERED 2024 · $3.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
| | Murders on the Yangtze River | older | $14.99 | 15,833 96% | 475k | $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) | OMEGAMES STUDIO |
| | The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles | older | $39.99 | 5,113 93% | 153k | $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Fate/Samurai Remnant | older | $39.99 | 5,018 90% | 151k | $6.0M (exactly $6,020,095) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Fate/stay night REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 4,277 95% | 128k | $3.8M (exactly $3,848,017) | TYPE-MOON, fuzz Inc. |
 | Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth | older | $19.99 | 5,926 92% | 178k | $3.6M (exactly $3,553,822) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Sailing Era | older | $24.99 | 4,565 78% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) | GY Games |
 | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Shao Song I | $14.99 | 2,671 81% | 80k | $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) | 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐 | |
 | Conquer the world | $12.99 | 1,996 92% | 60k | $778k (exactly $777,841) | 互动之星 | |
 | 再见断刀 | $9.99 | 2,563 92% | 77k | $768k (exactly $768,131) | 非侠游戏 | |
 | 咸鱼殿下 / My journey | $11.99 | 1,979 85% | 59k | $712k (exactly $711,846) | 大聪明工作室 | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Hua Manlou | $10.99 | 1,481 97% | 44k | $488k (exactly $488,286) | 初域游戏 | |
 | Half-Demon Shinobi | $10.99 | 1,242 89% | 37k | $409k (exactly $409,487) | 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機 | |
 | The Shell Part III: Paradiso | $19.99 | 622 96% | 19k | $373k (exactly $373,013) | Innocent Grey |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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