Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Action game?

Action + Historical

Of 257 developers who shipped a Historical Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 510 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8497 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 510 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 510 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 257
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $5.4k → $1.8k → $4.7k → $3.2k → $3.1k → $2.2k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 257
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,366)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933)
Developers, 2 yr 257
Released games 1,113
Announced 510
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 333,328 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 147 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 510 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance older $29.99 143,303 83% 4.3M $129M (exactly $128,929,709) Warhorse Studios
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.