Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Card Battler?

Card Battler + Historical

Of 36 developers who shipped a Historical Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1956 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 83 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 83 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $80k → $18k → $2.3k → $3.6k → $13k → $5.9k → $1.7k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Battler + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 107
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,441 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Krzyżacy - The Knights of the Cross older $15.99 591 74% 18k $284k (exactly $283,503) Olive Panda Studio
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Castle Morihisa older $14.99 348 66% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) Smokingbear Studio
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
The Political Machine 2024 older $19.99 255 74% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Three Kingdoms:Yi · EA $9.30 69 97% 2.1k $19k (exactly $19,251) XL Studio
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Vinecard $9.99 42 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) SiriusStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.