Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Political Sim?

Political Sim + Historical

Of 85 developers who shipped a Historical Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×638 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 121 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 121 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $11k → $5.4k → $4.9k → $12k → $54k → $1.6k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,039)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $60,710)
Top 5% $401k (exactly $400,600)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 213
Announced 121
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Political Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 53,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds24 devs · median $17k · 33 announced
  9. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Tropico 5 older $19.99 9,796 78% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,874,661) Haemimont Games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Urban Empire older $29.99 1,903 34% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,129) Reborn Games
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Anno 1404 - History Edition older $14.99 3,454 82% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,553,264) Ubisoft Mainz
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
The Darkest Files $19.99 668 95% 20k $401k (exactly $400,600) Paintbucket Games
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.