Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Historical

Of 94 developers who shipped a Historical Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 184 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 184 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $5.8k → $15k → $29k → $6.1k → $7.0k → $4.5k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 352
Announced 184
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 37,418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Banner of the Maid older $16.99 6,580 86% 197k $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) Azure Flame Studio
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
The Three Kingdoms: The Tales of Jian An $17.99 690 88% 21k $372k (exactly $372,393) 开翼网络
Never Second in Rome $12.99 637 81% 19k $248k (exactly $248,239) Alessandro Roberti
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.