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Should I ship a Historical Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Historical
Of 39 developers who shipped a Historical Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $73M, ×116864 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 79 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 25% | $404k (exactly $403,672) |
| Top 5% | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 135 |
| Announced | 79 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 241,530 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
MORDHAU 2019 · $82M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | MORDHAU | older | $29.99 | 91,678 80% | 2.8M | $82M (exactly $82,482,697) | Triternion |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | Chivalry 2 | older | $39.99 | 46,707 79% | 1.4M | $56M (exactly $56,034,388) | Torn Banner Studios |
 | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Chivalry: Medieval Warfare | older | $24.99 | 44,486 83% | 1.3M | $33M (exactly $33,351,154) | Torn Banner Studios |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
 | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | We Who Are About To Die | · EA older | $21.99 | 8,134 88% | 244k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) | Jordy Lakiere |
 | NORSE: Oath of Blood | $34.99 | 2,535 56% | 76k | $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) | Arctic Hazard | |
 | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
 | Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny | $29.99 | 663 85% | 20k | $597k (exactly $596,501) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio | |
 | 1348 Ex Voto | $24.99 | 705 53% | 21k | $529k (exactly $528,538) | Sedleo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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