Do I ship it?

Games › Character Customization › Character Customization + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Character Customization game?

Character Customization + Historical

Of 59 developers who shipped a Historical Character Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 150 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×6352 the market median. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 150 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 150 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Character Customization + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $14k → $148k → $7.0k → $33k → $3.0k → $63k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Character Customization + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $7.0k (exactly $6,951)
Top 25% $160k (exactly $159,520)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 229
Announced 150
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Character Customization; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Action
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 52,598 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 150 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Character Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  2. + Real-TimeStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  3. + Music-Based Procedural GenerationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  4. + TransportationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  5. + MinigamesFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.2k · 13 announced
  7. + BikesFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  8. + IdlerFair210 devs · median $1.2k · 286 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair146 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  10. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $836 · 32 announced
  11. + Precision PlatformerFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  12. + TypingFair27 devs · median $539 · 38 announced

All 250 pairs on the Character Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M MORDHAU 2019 · $82M Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty older $39.99 20,873 49% 626k $25M (exactly $25,041,338) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Once Upon A KATAMARI $39.99 1,355 90% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,594) RENGAME
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.