Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Asynchronous Multiplayer game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Historical

Only 10 developers shipped a Historical Asynchronous Multiplayer game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rise of the Ronin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×15530 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 16 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,678)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 36
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 66% positive over 7,270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M Turmoil 2016 · $5.1M Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M Through the Ages 2018 · $1.0M Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
SGS Taipings older $29.99 208 76% 6.2k $187k (exactly $187,138) Strategy Game Studio
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Three Kingdoms:BOND · EA $7.49 408 83% 12k $92k (exactly $91,678) Get Wrapped Up Inc.
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital
SGS Battle of the Bulge $24.99 8 37% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Strategy Game Studio
Samurai by Reiner Knizia $12.99 14 100% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Synthetic Mind AB
Machiavelli the Prince $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Holistic Design, Inc.
Sakamoto Dangerous Barrage $2.99 22 100% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Retsu Teikoku
Age of New Worlds $6.99 6 66% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) ernest.dev
Dragons of 1066 · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Huge Workshop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.