Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Roguelike?

Roguelike + Historical

Of 79 developers who shipped a Historical Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 130 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×262 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 130 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 130 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $18k → $3.0k → $9.6k → $13k → $5.4k → $2.7k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,700)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $164k (exactly $164,318)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 152
Announced 130
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,880 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARRIORS: Abyss 2025 · $1.5M Drop Duchy 2025 · $1.3M Tabletop Tavern 2026 · $1.2M Warriors of the Nile 2020 · $940k Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! 2020 · $895k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! older $19.99 1,492 92% 45k $895k (exactly $894,752) The Men Who Wear Many Hats
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
A Legionary's Life older $7.99 2,463 87% 74k $590k (exactly $590,381) Alessandro Roberti
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Becoming Saint $14.99 135 64% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Open Lab Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.