Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Historical

Of 48 developers who shipped a Historical Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×579 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 95 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 95 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $748 → $9.6k → $1.9k → $16k → $9.4k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,935)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,793)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $363,758)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 100
Announced 95
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
Inkulinati older $24.99 724 87% 22k $543k (exactly $542,783) Yaza Games
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Krzyżacy - The Knights of the Cross older $15.99 591 74% 18k $284k (exactly $283,503) Olive Panda Studio
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Three Kingdoms:BOND · EA $7.49 408 83% 12k $92k (exactly $91,678) Get Wrapped Up Inc.
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
皇帝游戏:天下-皇游天下 $8.99 216 96% 6.5k $58k (exactly $58,255) OTTOCOM
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.