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Should I ship a Historical Physics game?
Physics + Historical
Of 49 developers who shipped a Historical Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $410; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2205 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 75 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $405 (exactly $405) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,338) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,996) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 49 |
| Released games | 137 |
| Announced | 75 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 45,330 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $410. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
UBOAT 2024 · $23M 
Half Sword 2026 · EA · $21M 
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator 2026 · $8.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
| | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
| | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | We Who Are About To Die | · EA older | $21.99 | 8,134 88% | 244k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) | Jordy Lakiere |
 | Hellish Quart | · EA older | $17.99 | 8,068 88% | 242k | $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) | Kubold |
 | Shieldwall | older | $17.99 | 7,148 86% | 214k | $3.9M (exactly $3,857,776) | Nezon Production |
 | Walkabout Mini Golf VR | older | $24.99 | 3,094 97% | 93k | $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) | Mighty Coconut |
 | Peaks of Yore | older | $18.99 | 3,587 97% | 108k | $2.0M (exactly $2,043,514) | Anders Grube Jensen |
 | Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator | $34.99 | 1,319 97% | 40k | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) | Lyra Creative | |
 | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio | |
 | Railroad Corporation 2 | $39.99 | 376 69% | 11k | $451k (exactly $451,087) | Corbie Games | |
 | Toy Tactics | $24.99 | 121 91% | 3.6k | $91k (exactly $90,714) | Kraken Empire | |
 | ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles | · EA | $8.99 | 192 96% | 5.8k | $52k (exactly $51,782) | Tomas Sala |
 | Alnico Smithery | · EA | $14.99 | 98 82% | 2.9k | $44k (exactly $44,071) | Pinapl |
 | KILLDOZER | · EA | $19.99 | 57 78% | 1.7k | $34k (exactly $34,183) | Rename For Value |
 | Ritter & Rotwein | $12.49 | 86 68% | 2.6k | $32k (exactly $32,224) | Hurdy-Gurdy Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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