Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Historical

Only 13 developers shipped a Historical Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×28 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 21 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $4.5k → $3.0k → $599 → $6.7k
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $17,498)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 54
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 281 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration older $39.99 457 92% 14k $548k (exactly $548,263) Digital Eclipse
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Project Gunship · EA older $14.99 836 75% 25k $376k (exactly $375,949) Sklorite Studios LLC
VASARA Collection older $9.99 122 80% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,563) QUByte Interactive
Double older $5.99 182 82% 5.5k $33k (exactly $32,705) Tomato Fantasy Games
Battle of Vukovar: Rain of Steel · EA older $9.99 59 55% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Cro Game Developers
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Banner of Conquest $4.99 89 65% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Haojoy Game
PIZZA WESTERN 🍕 $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Lola Fisher
Threads of War $4.99 45 97% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KoS
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
Strikers 1945 2 $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Zerodiv
Gunslinger Express $4.99 20 75% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Glinnor
Strikers 1945 3 $9.99 7 71% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Zerodiv
Bolsheviktion 2: Yurovsky's Revenge $9.88 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,482) Pelican Blue Software
Bearplane $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Matthew Burton

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.