Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Historical

Of 138 developers who shipped a Historical Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 256 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1913 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 256 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 256 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 138
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $32k → $3.0k → $5.3k → $5.2k → $6.0k → $3.1k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 138
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,137)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149)
Developers, 2 yr 138
Released games 416
Announced 256
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 76,521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 256 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Return of the Obra Dinn older $19.99 32,309 96% 969k $19M (exactly $19,375,707) Lucas Pope
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
Fate/Samurai Remnant older $39.99 5,018 90% 151k $6.0M (exactly $6,020,095) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Yes, Your Grace 2: Snowfall $24.99 1,488 76% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,554) Brave At Night
Conquer the world $12.99 1,996 92% 60k $778k (exactly $777,841) 互动之星

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.