Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Platformer?

Platformer + Historical

Of 40 developers who shipped a Historical Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×601 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 77 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 395% on the market, 77 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.5k → $3.0k → $1.5k → $2.8k → $955 → $4.1k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 145
Announced 77
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, 3D Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,534 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ older $14.99 24,468 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,003,260) Ubisoft Montpellier
Peaks of Yore older $18.99 3,587 97% 108k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,514) Anders Grube Jensen
The Legend of Tianding older $19.99 3,272 94% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) Creative Games Computer Graphics Corpor… (Creative Games Computer Graphics Corporation, Neon Doctrine)
Apotheon older $14.99 3,314 89% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,490,306) Alientrap
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: China older $9.99 3,658 73% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,096,303) Climax Studios
Gecko Gods $19.99 629 96% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Inresin
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: Russia older $9.99 1,252 58% 38k $375k (exactly $375,224) Climax Studios
My Memory of Us older $17.99 632 92% 19k $341k (exactly $341,090) Juggler Games
Assassin’s Creed® Chronicles: India older $9.99 1,110 65% 33k $333k (exactly $332,667) Climax Studios
Scarlet Deer Inn $19.99 333 88% 10k $200k (exactly $199,700) Attu Games
Bubsy in: The Purrfect Collection $19.99 216 84% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Limited Run Games
Plus Ultra: Legado $14.99 93 82% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Póntica
The House of Hikmah $19.99 61 98% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Lunacy Studios
Island Off Outer Darkness $13.99 49 100% 1.5k $21k (exactly $20,565) Zugerujk
Pyramidion · EA $4.99 71 85% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) TechDevAYDIN
Earnest Evans Collection $49.99 7 42% 210 $10k (exactly $10,498) Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken… (Mighty Rabbit Studios, Headless Chicken Games)
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.