Do I ship it?

GamesArcheryArchery + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Archery game?

Archery + Historical

Only 11 developers shipped a Historical Archery game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Last King, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Archery + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $2.1k → $31k → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Archery + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,303)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,863)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Archery
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 412 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Archery with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Top-Down ShooterFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds13 devs · median $6.5k · 19 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $4.1k · 42 announced
  4. + RPGPoor odds28 devs · median $2.4k · 96 announced
  5. + PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  6. + HuntingPoor odds9 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + NaturePoor odds11 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  8. + Action RPGPoor odds19 devs · median $1.5k · 58 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds15 devs · median $1.5k · 47 announced
  10. + RoguelikePoor odds13 devs · median $1.0k · 25 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds52 devs · median $898 · 123 announced
  12. + CombatPoor odds36 devs · median $898 · 97 announced

All 46 pairs on the Archery page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Viking Way · EA older $14.99 331 42% 9.9k $149k (exactly $148,851) Ice Lava Games
Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator · EA older $9.99 426 84% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Mutiny Software
Dragon Throne: Battle of Red Cliffs older $9.99 249 84% 7.5k $75k (exactly $74,625) Object Software, ZOOM Platform Media, J… (Object Software, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Warbox Sandbox older $6.99 279 78% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,506) Madar Games
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
Riddle of the Sphinx™ The Awakening (Enhanced Edition) older $19.99 84 83% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Old World Studios™
Throbbin Hood 🏹🔞 $14.99 99 80% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,520) BanzaiProject
Caesar's Revenge older $13.50 82 85% 2.5k $33k (exactly $33,210) Pixel Barons
Native Hunter $17.99 58 72% 1.7k $31k (exactly $31,303) A.P.S
Valand older $7.99 54 59% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,944) LOMS Studio
Swamp Keeper $3.99 82 96% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Maetdol Games
the Shadow of Swallow $3.99 30 76% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) Raine Studio
South America Gold Rush · EA $9.99 9 44% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Argo Games
The Bow: Ultimate weapon $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Nomad Ukiki
Gladatora $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Jeremiah Eastman
Vivere Retro $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) Vidas Salavejus
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.