Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical CRPG?

CRPG + Historical

Of 28 developers who shipped a Historical CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×461 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $50k → $5.8k → $131k → $9.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 100
Announced 54
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,038 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Expeditions: Rome 2022 · $7.0M Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M Expeditions: Viking 2017 · $3.0M 江湖十一 2023 · $2.9M Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Expeditions: Conquistador older $19.99 1,228 77% 37k $736k (exactly $736,432) Logic Artists
咸鱼殿下 / My journey $11.99 1,979 85% 59k $712k (exactly $711,846) 大聪明工作室
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Legends of the Round Table $29.99 127 89% 3.8k $114k (exactly $114,262) Artifice Studio
Three Kingdoms Heroes $6.99 126 81% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 青衣工作室
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.