Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Roguelite?

Roguelite + Historical

Of 87 developers who shipped a Historical Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 137 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×652 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 137 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 137 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $284k → $10k → $13k → $6.9k → $5.4k → $9.4k (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,251)
Top 5% $409k (exactly $409,487)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 164
Announced 137
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Simulation
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,930 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 137 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Against the Storm 2023 · $30M We Who Are About To Die 2022 · EA · $5.4M WARRIORS: Abyss 2025 · $1.5M Drop Duchy 2025 · $1.3M Heads Will Roll: Reforged 2023 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Heads Will Roll: Reforged older $24.99 1,642 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) 1917 Studios
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
A Legionary's Life older $7.99 2,463 87% 74k $590k (exactly $590,381) Alessandro Roberti
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.