Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Historical

Only 18 developers shipped a Historical Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Trench Lord: Eastern Front, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×443 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 360% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $898 → $9.0k → $2.0k → $9.8k → $5.4k (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,997)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $278,408)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 60
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Cartoon
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  11. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds135 devs · median $3.1k · 207 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Rum & Gun older $4.99 390 92% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Borington
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
VASARA Collection older $9.99 122 80% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,563) QUByte Interactive
SEX with HITLER: WW2 older $3.99 291 76% 8.7k $35k (exactly $34,833) Adolf Games
Save One More older $4.99 187 62% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,994) Stas Shostak
Banner of Conquest $4.99 89 65% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Haojoy Game
Swamp Keeper $3.99 82 96% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Maetdol Games
PIZZA WESTERN 🍕 $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Lola Fisher
Cloud Keeper: Shrine of Dal · EA $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Jetpackgone
Pact of Steel $14.99 12 83% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Steel Potato Games LLC
Under a Desert Sun: Seekers of the Cursed Vessel · EA $24.99 6 100% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Revolving Gear Studios
Strikers 1945 2 $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Zerodiv
Gunslinger Express $4.99 20 75% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Glinnor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.