Do I ship it?

GamesAuto BattlerAuto Battler + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Auto Battler?

Auto Battler + Historical

Of 31 developers who shipped a Historical Auto Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×395 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 51 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Auto Battler + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $193k → $3.0k → $2.8k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Auto Battler + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,228)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $248,239)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 63
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Auto Battler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,223 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Auto Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  3. + AutomationFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  4. + Action RTSFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  5. + SimulationFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  6. + EconomyFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  7. + SandboxFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  8. + CyberpunkFair20 devs · median $1.7k · 25 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair23 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  10. + CatsFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair78 devs · median $1.1k · 93 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced

All 119 pairs on the Auto Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Northend Tower Defense older $7.99 1,309 75% 39k $314k (exactly $313,767) Northend Games
Never Second in Rome $12.99 637 81% 19k $248k (exactly $248,239) Alessandro Roberti
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Three Kingdoms:BOND · EA $7.49 408 83% 12k $92k (exactly $91,678) Get Wrapped Up Inc.
Gladiator Command · EA $9.99 241 96% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Marius Spikas
Becoming Saint $14.99 135 64% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Open Lab Games
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Red Rocket Defencism $7.99 172 98% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) tiny cactus studio
出将入相 $6.99 90 72% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) 克里斯工作室
Bounty Trail $6.99 84 52% 2.5k $18k (exactly $17,615) September Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.