Games › Trading › Trading + Historical
Should I ship a Historical Trading game?
Trading + Historical
Of 38 developers who shipped a Historical Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×8.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1956 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 83 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.2k (exactly $5,242) |
| Top 25% | $49k (exactly $48,568) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 108 |
| Announced | 83 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 190% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trading
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 28,689 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + MiningFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + FlightPoor odds
- + SportsPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + LootPoor odds
Comparable games
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022 · $23M 
Railway Empire 2018 · $6.5M 
The Guild 3 2022 · $6.4M 
Sailing Era 2023 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,870 92% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,710,639) | niceplay games |
| | Railway Empire | older | $29.99 | 7,219 82% | 217k | $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) | Gaming Minds Studios |
| | The Guild 3 | older | $29.99 | 7,120 60% | 214k | $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) | Purple Lamp, GolemLabs |
| | Sailing Era | older | $24.99 | 4,565 78% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) | GY Games |
 | Pharaoh™: A New Era | older | $22.99 | 4,811 75% | 144k | $3.3M (exactly $3,318,147) | Triskell Interactive |
 | Railway Empire 2 | older | $49.99 | 1,966 72% | 59k | $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) | Gaming Minds Studios |
 | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
 | Thriving City: Song | older | $18.99 | 3,054 81% | 92k | $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) | White Star Studio |
 | Port Royale 4 | older | $39.99 | 1,405 56% | 42k | $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) | Gaming Minds |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 26 | $49.99 | 819 82% | 25k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 27 | $49.99 | 475 82% | 14k | $712k (exactly $712,358) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Concubine | · EA | $14.99 | 517 81% | 16k | $232k (exactly $232,495) | Upgrade Entertainment |
 | Tlatoani: Aztec Cities | $19.99 | 180 83% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios | |
 | 九州：立志 | $11.99 | 235 81% | 7.1k | $85k (exactly $84,530) | Xbgzs | |
 | Sail the Seas | $19.99 | 140 76% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Viking Game Studio | |
 | Ile d'Or | · EA | $14.99 | 164 88% | 4.9k | $74k (exactly $73,751) | あとらそふと |
 | Wild West Supermarket Simulator | $12.99 | 168 63% | 5.0k | $65k (exactly $65,470) | SunDust |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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