Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade game?

Arcade

Of 5,593 developers who shipped an Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,835 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 3,467 developers shipped in the last year and 6,835 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 6,835 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5,593
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $719 → $628 → $599 → $450 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5,593
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,349)
Developers, 2 yr 5,593
Released games 19,069
Announced 6,835
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 399,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 3,016 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,835 games are announced against 3,467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Arcade

71 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Arcade + Trains Fair $3.1k 20 devs
  2. Arcade + Faith Fair $2.2k 16 devs
  3. Arcade + LGBTQ+ Fair $2.1k 72 devs
  4. Arcade + Vampires Fair $1.9k 34 devs
  5. Arcade + Romance Fair $1.8k 58 devs
  6. Arcade + Dragons Fair $1.7k 42 devs
  7. Arcade + Music Fair $1.6k 110 devs
  8. Arcade + Hacking Fair $1.6k 40 devs
  9. Arcade + Female Protagonist Fair $1.5k 372 devs
  10. Arcade + Gothic Fair $1.2k 49 devs
  11. Arcade + Dinosaurs Fair $1.2k 29 devs
  12. Arcade + Artificial Intelligence Fair $897 119 devs
  13. Arcade + Horror Fair $479 301 devs
  14. Arcade + Psychological Horror Fair $479 136 devs
  15. Arcade + Thriller Fair $479 50 devs
  16. Arcade + Superhero Long shot $897 34 devs
  17. Arcade + Mechs Poor odds $4.6k 48 devs
  18. Arcade + Heist Poor odds $2.4k 12 devs
  19. Arcade + Crime Poor odds $2.1k 42 devs
  20. Arcade + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.5k 67 devs
  21. Arcade + Time Travel Poor odds $1.5k 19 devs
  22. Arcade + Werewolves Poor odds $1.5k 10 devs
  23. Arcade + Capitalism Poor odds $1.4k 109 devs
  24. Arcade + Historical Poor odds $959 59 devs
  25. Arcade + Lovecraftian Poor odds $959 34 devs
  26. Arcade + Steampunk Poor odds $959 29 devs
  27. Arcade + Magic Poor odds $897 242 devs
  28. Arcade + Demons Poor odds $838 126 devs
  29. Arcade + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $718 213 devs
  30. Arcade + Pirates Poor odds $600 25 devs
  31. Arcade + Conspiracy Poor odds $600 22 devs
  32. Arcade + Mars Poor odds $599 14 devs
  33. Arcade + Noir Poor odds $598 38 devs
  34. Arcade + Naval Poor odds $598 17 devs
  35. Arcade + Fantasy Poor odds $539 683 devs
  36. Arcade + World War II Poor odds $539 21 devs
  37. Arcade + Horses Poor odds $539 17 devs
  38. Arcade + Medieval Poor odds $538 172 devs
  39. Arcade + Cyberpunk Poor odds $449 243 devs
  40. Arcade + Robots Poor odds $449 178 devs
  41. Arcade + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $449 170 devs
  42. Arcade + Cats Poor odds $449 151 devs
  43. Arcade + Military Poor odds $449 121 devs
  44. Arcade + Dystopian Poor odds $419 102 devs
  45. Arcade + War Poor odds $360 117 devs
  46. Arcade + Mythology Poor odds $359 62 devs
  47. Arcade + Detective Poor odds $299 33 devs
  48. Arcade + Ninja Poor odds $210 53 devs
  49. Arcade + Villain Protagonist Dead $12k 5 devs
  50. Arcade + World War I Dead $8.8k 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Mortal Kombat 11 2019 · $131M Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.