Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Arcade game?

Arcade + Mythology

Of 62 developers who shipped a Mythological Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 69 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.3k → $1.6k → $419 → $418 → $1.2k → $180 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,153)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 154
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. Nearly all of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ragnarock older $24.99 2,775 94% 83k $2.1M (exactly $2,080,417) WanadevStudio
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Twin Shot Deluxe $9.99 1,167 95% 35k $350k (exactly $349,750) Nitrome Limited
Okhlos: Omega older $12.99 633 78% 19k $247k (exactly $246,680) Coffee Powered Machine
Panzer Paladin older $19.99 334 76% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Tribute Games Inc.
Tiny Thor older $19.99 207 79% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Asylum Square
Cursed Castilla (Maldita Castilla EX) older $11.99 336 92% 10k $121k (exactly $120,859) Locomalito, Gryzor87
URUZ "Return of The Er Kishi" older $4.99 547 77% 16k $82k (exactly $81,886) Berzah Games
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke
Champion Shift older $11.99 200 77% 6.0k $72k (exactly $71,940) SRG Studios
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
Nun of your Business $5.99 126 73% 3.8k $23k (exactly $22,642) Revolt Games
Touhou Kouzougi ~ Flickerframe Shutter Festival $14.99 47 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Ryann Thierry
Versebound $6.99 81 97% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,986) Conifer Digital
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
XXX Pussy House $6.99 66 71% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Dreamers Workshop
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.