Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Arcade game?

Arcade + Dystopian

Of 102 developers who shipped a Dystopian Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×347 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 184 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 184 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $599 → $719 → $628 → $178 → $1.6k → $315 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $165k (exactly $164,803)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 288
Announced 184
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Score Attack
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 8,821 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HUNTDOWN older $19.99 4,059 94% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,434,182) Easy Trigger Games
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Super Blood Hockey older $14.99 902 91% 27k $406k (exactly $405,629) Loren Lemcke
Slave Zero X older $24.99 438 75% 13k $328k (exactly $328,369) Poppy Works
The Ninja Saviors: Return of the Warriors older $19.99 430 92% 13k $258k (exactly $257,871) Winning Entertainment Group Inc.
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Double Dragon Revive $34.99 157 63% 4.7k $165k (exactly $164,803) YUKE’S
XF Extreme Formula $11.99 366 90% 11k $132k (exactly $131,650) Feperd Games
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.