Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Arcade game?

Arcade + Capitalism

Of 109 developers who shipped a Capitalist Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×803 the market median. Revenue is up 735% on the market; 198 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 735% on the market, 198 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 109
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $11k → $2.8k → $179 → $300 → $8.8k → $2.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 109
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,772)
Top 5% $381k (exactly $381,235)
Developers, 2 yr 109
Released games 222
Announced 198
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 735% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 45,116 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Scritchy Scratchy 2026 · $3.2M Bills Must Be Paid 2026 · $2.1M Keep on Mining! 2025 · $1.2M Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator 2021 · $496k Astro Prospector 2025 · $482k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
The Elephant Collection older $14.99 723 95% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Wonderful Elephant (jmtb02)
Pixel Cafe older $12.99 833 91% 25k $325k (exactly $324,620) Baltoro Games
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Hole Is Mine $7.99 741 90% 22k $178k (exactly $177,618) Incrementalist

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.