Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Arcade game?

Arcade + Heist

Only 12 developers shipped a Heist Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Precinct, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11228 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 27 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $72k → $2.7k → $959 → $70k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,352)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 51
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 86% positive over 8,143 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite 2017 · $2.9M SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION 2019 · $2.5M Mr. Shifty 2017 · $384k Anarchy: Wolf's law 2023 · $230k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite older $39.99 2,445 67% 73k $2.9M (exactly $2,933,266) Capcom
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Mr. Shifty older $14.99 855 88% 26k $384k (exactly $384,494) Team Shifty
Anarchy: Wolf's law older $9.99 768 76% 23k $230k (exactly $230,170) Anarchy Games
Crash Time 2 older $4.99 1,170 63% 35k $175k (exactly $175,149) ·
Big Rumble Boxing: Creed Champions older $39.99 92 65% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Survios
Larcin Lazer older $9.99 241 99% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini
Monaco 2 $14.99 156 63% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Pocketwatch Games
Drakkar Crew older $14.99 155 80% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) SiBear Games
Hazard Levels · EA $9.99 70 71% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) Wales Interactive
Kitchen Wars $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Silent Owl
Mall Heist $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Evlnu GameWorks
Miami Horizon 2077 $4.90 16 75% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,352) CJ
Street grabbing of territory $2.99 7 100% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Southern Vermilion Bird
Steal Shift · EA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Fusion Iconic
Rob & Go $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gamecreame
AI Slop: The Race to AGI $1.50 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) CezanneSoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.