Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Arcade game?

Arcade + Magic

Of 242 developers who shipped a Magic Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 369 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×131 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 369 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 369 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 242
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $359 → $718 → $1.3k → $599 → $899 → $718 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 242
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 242
Released games 715
Announced 369
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 28,018 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 132 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 369 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Magicka 2011 · $5.7M The Spell Brigade 2026 · $5.7M Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions 2024 · $2.5M The Mageseeker: A League of Legends Story™ 2023 · $2.3M Until You Fall 2020 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
The Mageseeker: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 2,527 83% 76k $2.3M (exactly $2,273,542) Digital Sun
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Orcs Must Die! older $9.99 6,663 95% 200k $2.0M (exactly $1,996,901) Robot Entertainment
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Sacred 3 older $14.99 2,169 26% 65k $975k (exactly $975,399) Keen Games
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Nikoderiko: The Magical World — Director’s Cut $29.99 345 82% 10k $310k (exactly $310,396) VEA Games
Souper Game $14.99 550 78% 17k $247k (exactly $247,335) SinBeans Studio
TAMASHIKA $19.99 303 80% 9.1k $182k (exactly $181,709) quicktequila
The Smurfs – Dreams $29.99 174 92% 5.2k $157k (exactly $156,548) Ocellus Studio
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
Hand of Fate: Hordes · EA $11.99 312 79% 9.4k $112k (exactly $112,226) Spitfire Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.