Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Arcade game?

Arcade + Villain Protagonist

Only 5 developers shipped a Villain-Led Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, YOU ARE THE MONSTER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $12k against a market of $480. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 25.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Arcade + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Median $12k (exactly $12,081)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $95,087)
Top 5% $146k (exactly $146,254)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 33
Announced 11
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 18,030 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: THE BREAKERS older $29.99 4,983 50% 149k $4.5M (exactly $4,483,205) Dimps Corporation
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse older $19.99 1,781 89% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) Aspyr
Alex Jones: NWO Wars older $17.76 1,745 92% 52k $930k (exactly $929,736) NWO Wars Team
Be My Horde · EA older $9.99 2,052 85% 62k $615k (exactly $614,984) Polished Games
Terror of Hemasaurus older $14.99 766 91% 23k $344k (exactly $344,470) Loren Lemcke
BUTCHER older $9.99 1,046 89% 31k $313k (exactly $313,486) Phobia Game Studio, Transhuman Design
YOU ARE THE MONSTER · EA $9.99 488 69% 15k $146k (exactly $146,254) Joshua Hughes
I, Zombie older $1.99 2,180 84% 65k $130k (exactly $130,146) Awesome Games Studio
JUSTICE SUCKS: Tactical Vacuum Action older $19.99 199 95% 6.0k $119k (exactly $119,340) Samurai Punk
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
KatanaHime $0.99 45 95% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Heuristic Forge
Reverse Survivors $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Holiver Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.