Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Arcade game?

Arcade + Naval

Only 17 developers shipped a Naval Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Seafarer: The Ship Sim, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3211 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $891 → $50k → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,979)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 68
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Minimalist, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 2,463 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Seafarer: The Ship Sim 2025 · EA · $2.0M Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles 2024 · EA · $656k Boat Crew 2022 · EA · $323k Beach Invasion 1944 2022 · $311k Waves of Steel 2023 · $245k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Waves of Steel older $19.99 408 90% 12k $245k (exactly $244,678) TMA Games LLC
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Furious Seas older $19.99 196 71% 5.9k $118k (exactly $117,541) Future Immersive
Battlewake older $29.99 89 67% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Survios
Battle Group 2 older $7.99 257 84% 7.7k $62k (exactly $61,603) Bane Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Hydra Heli $4.99 83 91% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Ideas Per Second
Hydra Heli 2 $6.99 30 80% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Ideas Per Second
Ocean Survivors $3.49 38 97% 1.1k $4.0k (exactly $3,979) Aremji Games
Speedboat Simulator · EA $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Hard Shark Games
Wyrd Waters $1.99 16 100% 480 $955 (exactly $955) Maximalist
CHILL FISHING $0.99 30 90% 900 $891 (exactly $891) Sleepy Giant Creations
Piece of Ship · EA $3.99 5 80% 150 $598 (exactly $598) r-sky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.