Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade game?

Arcade

Of 5,593 developers who shipped an Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,835 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 3,467 developers shipped in the last year and 6,835 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 6,835 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5,593
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $719 → $628 → $599 → $450 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5,593
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,349)
Developers, 2 yr 5,593
Released games 19,069
Announced 6,835
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 399,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 3,016 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,835 games are announced against 3,467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Arcade

200 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Arcade + Roguelike Deckbuilder Fair $4.3k 59 devs
  2. Arcade + Visual Novel Fair $2.6k 101 devs
  3. Mining + Arcade Fair $2.2k 91 devs
  4. Turn-Based + Arcade Fair $2.2k 35 devs
  5. Economy + Arcade Fair $2.1k 199 devs
  6. Arcade + Deckbuilding Fair $1.9k 170 devs
  7. Arcade + Card Battler Fair $1.9k 68 devs
  8. Loot + Arcade Fair $1.9k 147 devs
  9. Resource Management + Arcade Fair $1.5k 322 devs
  10. Turn-Based Combat + Arcade Fair $1.3k 59 devs
  11. Arcade + Minigames Fair $1.3k 57 devs
  12. Arcade + Gambling Fair $1.3k 96 devs
  13. Turn-Based Strategy + Arcade Fair $1.3k 101 devs
  14. Arcade + Pinball Fair $1.2k 73 devs
  15. Arcade + Auto Battler Fair $1.1k 78 devs
  16. Arcade + Idler Fair $1.1k 386 devs
  17. Arcade + Roguelike Fair $959 841 devs
  18. City Builder + Arcade Fair $898 28 devs
  19. Simulation + Arcade Fair $839 1,019 devs
  20. Transportation + Arcade Fair $839 37 devs
  21. Arcade + Incremental Fair $807 541 devs
  22. Golf + Arcade Fair $719 40 devs
  23. Mini Golf + Arcade Fair $719 29 devs
  24. Arcade + Tower Defense Fair $718 135 devs
  25. Automation + Arcade Fair $718 114 devs
  26. Arcade + Rhythm Fair $716 188 devs
  27. Fishing + Arcade Fair $716 51 devs
  28. Life Sim + Arcade Fair $657 87 devs
  29. Creature Collector + Arcade Fair $629 73 devs
  30. Arcade + Bullet Hell Fair $599 985 devs
  31. Walking Simulator + Arcade Fair $599 73 devs
  32. Arcade + Multiple Endings Fair $598 176 devs
  33. Arcade + Time Attack Fair $539 68 devs
  34. Strategy + Arcade Fair $505 955 devs
  35. Arcade + Shoot 'Em Up Fair $419 749 devs
  36. Collectathon + Arcade Fair $359 277 devs
  37. Arcade + Billiards Fair $359 28 devs
  38. Baseball + Arcade Long shot $899 15 devs
  39. Automobile Sim + Arcade Long shot $774 162 devs
  40. Football (Soccer) + Arcade Long shot $539 64 devs
  41. Shooter + Arcade Long shot $419 1,151 devs
  42. God Game + Arcade Long shot $390 17 devs
  43. Colony Sim + Arcade Long shot $359 13 devs
  44. Naval Combat + Arcade Long shot $300 21 devs
  45. Sniper + Arcade Long shot $300 20 devs
  46. Arcade + Chess Long shot $180 12 devs
  47. Character Action Game + Arcade Poor odds $5.5k 17 devs
  48. BMX + Arcade Poor odds $5.1k 8 devs
  49. Party-Based RPG + Arcade Poor odds $3.6k 18 devs
  50. Arcade + Dating Sim Poor odds $3.6k 30 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Mortal Kombat 11 2019 · $131M Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.