Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Arcade game?

Arcade + War

Of 117 developers who shipped a War Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 167 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 167 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $1.3k → $479 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $300 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,633)
Top 5% $125k (exactly $125,431)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 483
Announced 167
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,116 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 2019 · $83M Sifu 2023 · $26M Project Wingman 2020 · $14M Nuclear Option 2023 · EA · $6.2M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Need for Speed™ Rivals older $19.99 9,265 76% 278k $5.6M (exactly $5,556,220) Criterion Games
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
War Dust VR: 32v32 Battlefields older $24.99 1,489 80% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,303) raptor lab
Military Conflict: Vietnam · EA older $14.99 2,035 91% 61k $915k (exactly $915,140) Dustfade
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Coin Push RPG $9.99 584 76% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) RAmen
Double Dragon Revive $34.99 157 63% 4.7k $165k (exactly $164,803) YUKE’S
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Vincemus - Air Combat $14.99 114 82% 3.4k $51k (exactly $51,266) Virtual Convict
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.
Full Metal Sergeant 2 $9.99 66 89% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) CarloC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.