Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Arcade game?

Arcade + Horror

Of 301 developers who shipped a Horror Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 312 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, level with the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 312 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 312 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 301
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $299 → $719 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 301
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,229)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,284)
Developers, 2 yr 301
Released games 904
Announced 312
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 33,870 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 167 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 312 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mortal Kombat 11 2019 · $131M Mortal Kombat 1 2023 · $51M Mortal Kombat X 2015 · $24M Returnal™ 2023 · $12M Distance 2018 · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
Crawl older $14.99 5,625 95% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,529,562) Powerhoof
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
Thumper older $19.99 4,056 91% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,383) Drool
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION $19.99 770 96% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
THE HOUSE OF THE DEAD 2: Remake $24.99 607 44% 18k $455k (exactly $455,068) MegaPixel Studio S. A.
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
RATSHAKER™ $2.99 3,011 92% 90k $270k (exactly $270,087) Sunscorched Studios
SchoolBoy Runaway $1.99 3,731 90% 112k $223k (exactly $222,741) Linked Squad

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.