Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Arcade game?

Arcade + Detective

Of 33 developers who shipped a Detective Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 33 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 33 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $958 → $299 → $10k → $270 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,134)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 79
Announced 33
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Investigation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 9,181 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Budget Cuts Ultimate older $19.99 110 88% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Neat Corporation
Yurukill: The Calumniation Games older $19.99 64 76% 1.9k $38k (exactly $38,381) IzanagiGames, G.rev Ltd., ESQUADRA,inc.
Paranormal Detective: Escape from the 80's older $9.99 82 92% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) LunaBeat
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
DeTechtive 2112 $10.99 60 46% 1.8k $20k (exactly $19,782) M11 Studio
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Fantastic Findings Hidden Seasons $11.99 29 89% 870 $10k (exactly $10,431) Shapeshift Entertainment ApS
Memori · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) PracticalNPC
The Power of Fish $4.99 25 96% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Strangefish Studios
1964 Operation Velvet Twins $5.99 8 87% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) SEEP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.