Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Arcade game?

Arcade + Pirates

Of 25 developers who shipped a Pirate Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $89k, ×142 the market median. Revenue is up 675% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 675% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $479 → $2.7k → $1.4k → $299 → $12k → $2.1k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,081)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,214)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 109
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 675% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, 1980s
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Space Pirate Trainer older $14.99 2,646 94% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,906) I-Illusions
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Captain Wayne - Vacation Desperation $9.99 1,019 97% 31k $305k (exactly $305,394) Ciaran Games LLC
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Furious Seas older $19.99 196 71% 5.9k $118k (exactly $117,541) Future Immersive
Trash Sailors: Co-Op Trash Raft Simulator older $19.99 187 67% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) fluckyMachine
Fort Defense older $14.99 232 78% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Creobit
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets
Battlewake older $29.99 89 67% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Survios
Pinball Wicked $7.99 235 87% 7.1k $56k (exactly $56,330) Formslingers
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
hololive GoroGoro Mountain $12.99 35 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $13,640) BeXide Inc.
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
Ocean Survivors $3.49 38 97% 1.1k $4.0k (exactly $3,979) Aremji Games
Captain Puff MacFly $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) MVCAO Studios
Kiana & Biscuit - Pirates on a Visit! $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) SpicyFuse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.