Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Arcade game?

Arcade + Robots

Of 178 developers who shipped a Robot Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 254 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $65k, ×104 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 254 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 254 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 178
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $359 → $599 → $1.8k → $958 → $1.6k → $202 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 178
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $65,206)
Developers, 2 yr 178
Released games 663
Announced 254
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,222 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $65k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 102 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 254 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 2024 · $11M MULLET MADJACK 2024 · $4.9M Vanquish 2017 · $4.2M Raw Data 2017 · $2.4M Sairento VR 2018 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
MULLET MADJACK older $19.99 8,235 97% 247k $4.9M (exactly $4,938,530) HAMMER95
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
Sairento VR older $29.99 1,448 86% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,302,766) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
LEFT ALIVE™ older $59.99 622 31% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,119,413) Square Enix
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Assault Android Cactus+ older $19.99 1,325 94% 40k $795k (exactly $794,602) Witch Beam
Astebreed: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,272 87% 38k $763k (exactly $762,818) Edelweiss
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Advent NEON® $19.99 300 98% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) CryoGX
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Tech Blast $39.99 90 92% 2.7k $108k (exactly $107,973) Galactic Geckon
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio
Cyber Tower 2048 $29.99 92 88% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) Galactic Geckon
SNAKE GAME ULTRA CORE $29.99 89 88% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Galactic Geckon
Roulette Hero $9.99 260 92% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) CLLC Studio
Super Alloy Crush · EA $11.99 194 90% 5.8k $70k (exactly $69,782) Alloy Mushroom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.