Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Arcade game?

Arcade + Military

Of 121 developers who shipped a Military Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 163 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $78k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 163 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 163 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $683 → $1.7k → $898 → $599 → $1.2k → $449 → $659 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,821)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 420
Announced 163
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,977 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 163 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
LEFT ALIVE™ older $59.99 622 31% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,119,413) Square Enix
War Dust VR: 32v32 Battlefields older $24.99 1,489 80% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,303) raptor lab
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
Military Conflict: Vietnam · EA older $14.99 2,035 91% 61k $915k (exactly $915,140) Dustfade
Nitro Express $12.99 1,069 75% 32k $417k (exactly $416,589) Grayfax Software
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
MUSYNX:RETURN $19.99 284 74% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) I-Inferno
Wild Blue Skies $14.99 251 58% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Chuhai Labs, VITEI BACKROOM Inc.
SONIC WINGS REUNION $59.99 46 60% 1.4k $83k (exactly $82,786) SUCCESS Corp.
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Vincemus - Air Combat $14.99 114 82% 3.4k $51k (exactly $51,266) Virtual Convict
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.