Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Arcade game?

Arcade + Thriller

Of 50 developers who shipped a Thriller Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, level with the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 51 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 51 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $359 → $298 → $5.1k → $300 → $479 → $505 (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $155k (exactly $155,322)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 132
Announced 51
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
Christmas Massacre older $7.99 1,015 91% 30k $243k (exactly $243,296) Puppet Combo
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Blind Drive older $9.99 352 96% 11k $105k (exactly $105,494) Lo-Fi People
Spectator older $12.99 113 93% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,036) Minechan, Neko Machine
Deep Eclipse: New Space Odyssey older $6.99 165 73% 5.0k $35k (exactly $34,600) Ultravision Interactive
İBLİS2:sorcery older $7.99 122 36% 3.7k $29k (exactly $29,243) Bulut ULU
Nitroglycerine! $4.99 146 86% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Avoidance
Slaughter Me Street: 1999 $4.99 72 97% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,778) GlitchedLizard, Nate Sanders
The Riese Project · EA $14.99 21 76% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) MasashigeDev
Creepy Creepy Love $4.99 62 93% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) BYYONI Entertainment
Blackout Memphis $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Chrimial UG
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
Bullet Noir $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) WOLCEN Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.