Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Arcade game?

Arcade + Mechs

Of 48 developers who shipped a Mech Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×680 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 83 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $8.4k → $12k → $4.6k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $10k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,585)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,552)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $427,215)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 192
Announced 83
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 10,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
LEFT ALIVE™ older $59.99 622 31% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,119,413) Square Enix
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Astebreed: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,272 87% 38k $763k (exactly $762,818) Edelweiss
Last Call BBS older $19.99 1,220 94% 37k $732k (exactly $731,634) Zachtronics
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
UFO ROBOT GRENDIZER – The Feast of the Wolves older $39.99 559 84% 17k $671k (exactly $670,632) Endroad
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd
Nitro Express $12.99 1,069 75% 32k $417k (exactly $416,589) Grayfax Software
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Vital Shell $5.99 1,752 96% 53k $315k (exactly $314,834) MarvinWizard
MUSYNX:RETURN $19.99 284 74% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) I-Inferno
YOU ARE THE MONSTER · EA $9.99 488 69% 15k $146k (exactly $146,254) Joshua Hughes
DoDonPachi Resurrection Reignite $24.99 158 42% 4.7k $118k (exactly $118,453) CAVE Interactive CO., LTD.
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.