Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Arcade game?

Arcade + Medieval

Of 172 developers who shipped a Medieval Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 259 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $84k, ×178 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 259 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 259 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 172
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $718 → $628 → $719 → $449 → $539 → $599 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 172
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $84,572)
Developers, 2 yr 172
Released games 513
Announced 259
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 9,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $84k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 89 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 259 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Castle Crashers® 2012 · $49M SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove 2014 · $17M Rogue Legacy 2013 · $7.1M Hellish Quart 2021 · EA · $4.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
CastleStorm older $9.99 1,262 89% 38k $378k (exactly $378,221) Zen Studios
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
The Bleakest Keep $9.99 719 90% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Cache of Bones
Agrivore: Incremental Farming $6.99 494 70% 15k $104k (exactly $103,592) verty
Hordes of Hunger $14.99 230 72% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) Hyperstrange
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
IGS Classic Arcade Collection $29.99 94 60% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) IGS(台灣鈊象電子)
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.