Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Arcade game?

Arcade + Ninja

Of 53 developers who shipped a Ninja Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. Revenue is down 65% on the market, with 47 games announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 47 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $3.6k → $6.1k → $239 → $719 → $5.9k → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 213
Announced 47
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, Stylized, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 7,733 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder's Revenge 2022 · $9.7M SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance 2025 · $3.2M SAMURAI SHODOWN 2021 · $2.5M Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection 2025 · $1.8M Sairento VR 2018 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder's Revenge older $24.99 12,961 94% 389k $9.7M (exactly $9,716,862) Tribute Games Inc.
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
SAMURAI SHODOWN older $49.53 1,685 81% 51k $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) SNK CORPORATION
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Sairento VR older $29.99 1,448 86% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,302,766) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
N++ (NPLUSPLUS) older $14.99 2,825 95% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,270,402) Metanet Software Inc.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
STRIDER™ / ストライダー飛竜® older $14.99 2,167 83% 65k $975k (exactly $974,500) Double Helix Games, Capcom
Super House of Dead Ninjas older $19.99 1,470 96% 44k $882k (exactly $881,559) Megadev
Cyber Shadow older $19.99 1,294 83% 39k $776k (exactly $776,012) Aarne "MekaSkull" Hunziker
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
Mexican Ninja $16.99 76 89% 2.3k $39k (exactly $38,737) Madbricks
Haneda Girl $14.99 74 94% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Studio Koba
The Last Ninja Collection + Bonus Games $29.99 16 100% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) System 3 Software
Rogue Samurai $5.99 60 53% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) CO's Entertainment
DAWN ONE $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) shaderbunny

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.