Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Arcade game?

Arcade + Dragons

Of 42 developers who shipped a Dragon Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 410% on the market; 48 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 410% on the market, 48 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $716 → $3.3k → $1.9k → $150 → $809 → $4.3k → $899 (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,672)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 5% $95k (exactly $95,087)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 129
Announced 48
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 410% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Destruction
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,261 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Dungeons & Dragons: Chronicles of Mystara older $14.99 1,533 80% 46k $689k (exactly $689,390) Iron Galaxy Studios
Panzer Dragoon: Remake older $24.99 862 78% 26k $646k (exactly $646,241) MegaPixel Studio S. A.
The Wizards - Enhanced Edition older $24.99 490 74% 15k $367k (exactly $367,353) Carbon Studio
Dragon's Lair older $9.99 673 77% 20k $202k (exactly $201,698) Digital Leisure Inc.
Double Dragon Revive $34.99 157 63% 4.7k $165k (exactly $164,803) YUKE’S
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
Pathfinder: Gallowspire Survivors older $6.99 559 59% 17k $117k (exactly $117,222) BKOM Studios
Miss Kobayashi's Dragon Maid Burst Forth!! Choro-gon☆Breath DIRECTOR'S CUT older $29.99 116 89% 3.5k $104k (exactly $104,365) KAMINARI GAMES Inc.
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
PROJEKT GODHAND $15.80 158 96% 4.7k $75k (exactly $74,892) Anarch Entertainment
Dragon Ruins II $9.99 209 87% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,637) Graverobber Foundation
Tasty Planet: Final Bite $12.99 100 90% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Dingo Games
No Need for Flowers $14.99 41 100% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Amanda Konish
Heroes of Mount Dragon $19.99 27 66% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) RuniQ
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.