Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Arcade game?

Arcade + Fantasy

Of 683 developers who shipped a Fantasy Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 883 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×131 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 883 games are announced against 404 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 883 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 683
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $538 → $809 → $538 → $449 → $898 → $479 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 683
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 683
Released games 2,089
Announced 883
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 62,332 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 344 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 883 games are announced against 404 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
BlazBlue Centralfiction older $39.99 9,476 94% 284k $11M (exactly $11,368,357) Arc System Works
Minecraft Dungeons older $19.99 17,941 90% 538k $11M (exactly $10,759,218) Mojang Studios, ‪Double Eleven
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Wild Woods · EA $14.99 1,746 78% 52k $785k (exactly $785,176) Octofox Games
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
PAC-MAN WORLD 2 Re-PAC $29.99 694 90% 21k $624k (exactly $624,392) NOW PRODUCTION Co., Ltd.
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.