Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Arcade game?

Arcade + Historical

Of 59 developers who shipped a Historical Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×52 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 80 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 80 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $599 → $959 → $1.5k → $450 → $898 → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 225
Announced 80
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Bullet Hell
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Wanderer older $39.99 824 83% 25k $989k (exactly $988,553) Mighty Eyes
Military Conflict: Vietnam · EA older $14.99 2,035 91% 61k $915k (exactly $915,140) Dustfade
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Rayman Raving Rabbids™ older $9.99 1,930 84% 58k $578k (exactly $578,421) Ubisoft Bulgaria, Ubisoft Montpellier
Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration older $39.99 457 92% 14k $548k (exactly $548,263) Digital Eclipse
First Cut: Samurai Duel older $8.99 1,986 88% 60k $536k (exactly $535,624) Night Eyes Interactive
SAMURAI SHODOWN NEOGEO COLLECTION older $39.99 370 81% 11k $444k (exactly $443,889) DIGITAL ECLIPSE
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
Saint Slayer: Spear of Sacrilege $9.99 109 94% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) Lillymo Games
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Threads of War $4.99 45 97% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KoS
Cloud Keeper: Shrine of Dal · EA $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Jetpackgone
Cult of Shadows $14.99 11 72% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Squirrel Tail Games
World Hockey '88 $12.99 12 83% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Phantasma Digital
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs
UNDERGROUNDED $19.99 7 100% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Game Studio Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.