Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Arcade game?

Arcade + Dark Fantasy

Of 213 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 317 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×604 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 317 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 317 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 213
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.3k → $955 → $1.7k → $239 → $1.2k → $838 (still earning) → $285 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 213
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,155)
Developers, 2 yr 213
Released games 572
Announced 317
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 89,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 317 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Windblown 2024 · EA · $6.8M Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M The Spell Brigade 2026 · $5.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Thumper older $19.99 4,056 91% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,383) Drool
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon older $9.99 3,823 94% 115k $1.1M (exactly $1,145,753) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.