Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Arcade game?

Arcade + Crime

Of 42 developers who shipped a Crime Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×714 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 80 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 80 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $1.7k → $599 → $2.4k → $70k → $718 → $1.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,642)
Top 5% $449k (exactly $448,651)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 118
Announced 80
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 14,617 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
The Chef's Shift $12.99 1,948 97% 58k $759k (exactly $759,136) Panitia GameDev
Serial Cleaner older $14.99 1,361 84% 41k $612k (exactly $612,042) Draw Distance
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
Arrest of a stone Buddha older $14.99 400 69% 12k $180k (exactly $179,880) yeo
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
Monaco 2 $14.99 156 63% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Pocketwatch Games
BEHEMOTH $3.99 412 88% 12k $49k (exactly $49,316) The Behemoth
Kraken City $4.99 189 67% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,293) nStarcube
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.