Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII game?

World War II

Of 147 developers who shipped a WWII game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 245 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $410; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1660 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 245 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 245 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 147
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.9k → $14k → $4.3k → $8.3k → $1.6k → $2.5k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 147
Bottom 30% $405 (exactly $405)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752)
Developers, 2 yr 147
Released games 961
Announced 245
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 57,264 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $410, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $410. 7 in 10 of the 95 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 245 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with World War II

63 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Sandbox + World War II Fair $146k 14 devs
  2. Driving + World War II Fair $4.2k 8 devs
  3. Naval Combat + World War II Fair $2.7k 12 devs
  4. Physics + World War II Fair $1.4k 11 devs
  5. Top-Down Shooter + World War II Fair $1.4k 11 devs
  6. Co-op + World War II Poor odds $372k 12 devs
  7. Online Co-Op + World War II Poor odds $188k 10 devs
  8. Open World + World War II Poor odds $146k 9 devs
  9. RTS + World War II Poor odds $105k 23 devs
  10. Immersive Sim + World War II Poor odds $105k 11 devs
  11. Real Time Tactics + World War II Poor odds $67k 24 devs
  12. Stealth + World War II Poor odds $43k 11 devs
  13. Simulation + World War II Poor odds $15k 47 devs
  14. Tactical + World War II Poor odds $15k 44 devs
  15. Management + World War II Poor odds $6.0k 12 devs
  16. Strategy + World War II Poor odds $4.5k 66 devs
  17. PvP + World War II Poor odds $4.5k 21 devs
  18. Action-Adventure + World War II Poor odds $4.3k 24 devs
  19. Vehicular Combat + World War II Poor odds $4.2k 15 devs
  20. Third-Person Shooter + World War II Poor odds $3.9k 12 devs
  21. FPS + World War II Poor odds $3.3k 21 devs
  22. Grand Strategy + World War II Poor odds $3.3k 13 devs
  23. Action + World War II Poor odds $2.7k 72 devs
  24. Combat + World War II Poor odds $2.7k 44 devs
  25. Wargame + World War II Poor odds $2.5k 59 devs
  26. Exploration + World War II Poor odds $2.5k 17 devs
  27. Turn-Based Strategy + World War II Poor odds $2.4k 27 devs
  28. Turn-Based Combat + World War II Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
  29. RPG + World War II Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  30. Tanks + World War II Poor odds $2.2k 29 devs
  31. Adventure + World War II Poor odds $2.0k 35 devs
  32. Survival + World War II Poor odds $2.0k 12 devs
  33. Turn-Based Tactics + World War II Poor odds $1.4k 24 devs
  34. PvE + World War II Poor odds $1.4k 20 devs
  35. Shooter + World War II Poor odds $1.3k 47 devs
  36. Choices Matter + World War II Poor odds $1.3k 17 devs
  37. Resource Management + World War II Poor odds $1.3k 11 devs
  38. Tabletop + World War II Poor odds $1.2k 9 devs
  39. Arcade + World War II Poor odds $539 21 devs
  40. Flight + World War II Poor odds $539 16 devs
  41. Building + World War II Dead $789k 7 devs
  42. Strategy RPG + World War II Dead $471k 2 devs
  43. Dating Sim + World War II Dead $276k 2 devs
  44. Submarine + World War II Dead $67k 4 devs
  45. Visual Novel + World War II Dead $13k 6 devs
  46. Puzzle + World War II Dead $9.6k 10 devs
  47. Interactive Fiction + World War II Dead $7.1k 9 devs
  48. Action RPG + World War II Dead $3.9k 5 devs
  49. Character Customization + World War II Dead $3.4k 7 devs
  50. Survival Horror + World War II Dead $2.5k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Hell Let Loose 2021 · $149M Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus older $39.99 35,277 81% 1.1M $42M (exactly $42,321,817) MachineGames
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.