Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII PvP game?

PvP + World War II

Of 21 developers who shipped a WWII PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×3.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×642 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5M → $12k → $95k → $599 → $32k → $89 → $779k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,485)
Top 25% $165k (exactly $164,590)
Top 5% $961k (exactly $961,308)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 115
Announced 39
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 6,727 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 5 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad older $49.99 8,749 79% 262k $13M (exactly $13,120,875) FOR-GAMES CR LTD
Men of War II older $44.99 5,614 60% 168k $7.6M (exactly $7,577,216) Best Way
Call of Duty®: Vanguard older $59.99 4,172 67% 125k $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware)
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Dino D-Day older $9.99 8,039 86% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) 800 North and Digital Ranch
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Scramble: Battle of Britain · EA $29.99 209 88% 6.3k $188k (exactly $188,037) Slitherine Ltd.
Army Troop $14.99 366 80% 11k $165k (exactly $164,590) Army Troop Studios
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas
Battlefield Commander WWII · EA $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Sword of Steel
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)
WEGO World War II: Overlord $39.99 5 80% 150 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Brian Kelly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.